Letter no. 126

A real-time criminal investigation is no fun (most leads go nowhere), whereas, with hindsight bias, it makes for an awesome book or a movie. However, there exists a concept within any investigation where all participants become overly focused on a singular theory. That often botches the entire investigation. That fallacy is called ‘privileging the hypothesis’.

Markets today seem to falling for the same. India is a great story over the long term, but the road to the long term could still prove tumultuous. In today’s moneycontrol article, we point out the four things that can play spoil-sport. In the end, it may amount to nothing after all. But regardless, it is worth keeping one eye out so as not to “privilege the hypothesis”.

Read here: http://tinyurl.com/yrbu4k2u

Our previous articles can be found here:  https://www.buoyantcap.com/our-memos/

Disclaimer:

Information in this letter is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to make investments with Buoyant Capital. Prospective investors should rely solely on the Disclosure Document filed with SEBI. Any description involving investment examples, statistical analysis or investment strategies is provided for illustration purposes only – and will not apply in all situations and may be changed at the discretion of the principal officer. Certain information has been provided and/or based on third-party sources and although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified; the investment managers make no express warranty as to its completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing herein