Letter no # 121

Crude oil is down 12% (1m) and 33% since Jun-22. India imports 87% of its requirements; lower prices are good. But, counteracting forces often play out. Crude impacts India’s BOP, inflation, govt. finances and rates.

Our article in moneycontrol explores these nuances; here: https://tinyurl.com/yc8reted

Lower crude helps India save $68b a year. For context, BSE 500 F22 pre-tax profits were only $103b. Given (a) the lowest FFTR-Repo differential, (b) overnight call rates breaching Repo (only the third time this century), and (c) global equities rejoicing the potential end of the rate-hiking cycle, unique Indian considerations are gaining importance.

Our previous articles can be found here: https://www.buoyantcap.com/news-resources/memos/

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